Publications

@article{Crooks2022-ng,

title = {Predicting need for escalation of care or death from repeated 

 daily clinical observations and laboratory results in patients 

 with severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2},

author = {Colin J Crooks and Joe West and Andrew Fogarty and Joanne R Morling and Matthew J Grainge and Sherif Gonem and Mark Simmonds and Andrea Race and Irene Juurlink and Steve Briggs and Simon Cruickshank and Susan Hammond-Pears and Timothy R Card},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-10-01},

journal = {Am. J. Epidemiol.},

volume = {191},

number = {11},

pages = {1944\textendash1953},

publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)},

abstract = {We compared the performance of prognostic tools for severe acute 

 respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) using parameters 

 fitted either at the time of hospital admission or across all 

 time points of an admission. This cohort study used clinical 

 data to model the dynamic change in prognosis of SARS-CoV-2 at a 

 single hospital center in the United Kingdom, including all 

 patients admitted from February 1, 2020, to December 31, 2020, 

 and then followed up for 60 days for intensive care unit (ICU) 

 admission, death, or discharge from the hospital. We 

 incorporated clinical observations and blood tests into 2 

 time-varying Cox proportional hazards models predicting daily 

 24- to 48-hour risk of admission to the ICU for those eligible 

 for escalation of care or death for those ineligible for 

 escalation. In developing the model, 491 patients were eligible 

 for ICU escalation and 769 were ineligible for escalation. Our 

 model had good discrimination of daily risk of ICU admission in the validation cohort (n = 1,141; C statistic: C = 0.91, 95% 

 confidence interval: 0.89, 0.94) and our score performed better 

 than other scores (National Early Warning Score 2, International 

 Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Comprehensive 

 Clinical Characterisation Collaboration score) calculated using 

 only parameters measured on admission, but it overestimated the risk of escalation (calibration slope = 0.7). A bespoke daily 

 SARS-CoV-2 escalation risk prediction score can predict the need 

 for clinical escalation better than a generic early warning 

 score or a single estimation of risk calculated at admission.},

keywords = {coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19, critical care, mortality, SARS-CoV-2, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, survival analysis},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Cianci2022-xi,

title = {Prognostic non-invasive biomarkers for all-cause mortality in 

 non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: A systematic review and 

 meta-analysis},

author = {Nicole Cianci and Mohsan Subhani and Trevor Hill and Amardeep Khanna and Dong Zheng and Abhishek Sheth and Colin Crooks and Guruprasad P Aithal},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-05-01},

journal = {World J. Hepatol.},

volume = {14},

number = {5},

pages = {1025\textendash1037},

publisher = {Baishideng Publishing Group Inc.},

abstract = {BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) represents 

 a growing public health concern, with patients having higher 

 risk of morbidity and mortality. It has a considerably high 

 prevalence in the general population, estimated 20%-40% in 

 Europe, and is asymptomatic until late in the disease course. It 

 is therefore important to identify and validate tools that 

 predict hard outcomes such as mortality for use in clinical 

 practice in risk-stratifying NAFLD patients. AIM: To evaluate 

 available evidence on the use of non-invasive test(s) as 

 prognostic factors for mortality in NAFLD. METHODS: We performed 

 electronic searches of Medline and EMBASE (Ovid) until 7th 

 January 2021 of studies in NAFLD populations. Prognostic markers 

 included serum biomarkers, non-invasive scoring systems, and 

 non-invasive imaging. The population included all spectrums of 

 disease severity, including NAFLD and non-alcoholic 

 steatohepatitis (NASH). Outcomes included all-cause, and 

 cardiovascular mortality. All non-invasive tests were 

 synthesised in a narrative systematic review. Finally, we 

 conducted a meta-analysis of non-invasive scoring systems for 

 predicting all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, calculating 

 pooled hazard ratios and 95% confidence (STATA 16.1). RESULTS: 

 Database searches identified 2850 studies - 24 were included. 16 

 studies reported non-invasive scoring systems, 10 studies 

 reported individual biomarkers, and 1 study reported imaging 

 modalities. 4 studies on non-invasive scoring systems (6324 

 participants) had data available for inclusion in the 

 meta-analysis. The non-invasive scoring system that performed 

 best at predicting all-cause mortality was NAFLD fibrosis score 

 (NFS) [pHR 3.07 (1.62-5.83)], followed by fibrosis-4 index [pHR 

 3.06 (1.54-6.07)], BARD [pHR 2.87 (1.27-6.46)], and AST to 

 platelet ratio index [pHR 1.90 (1.32-2.73)]. NFS was also 

 prognostic of cardiovascular-related mortality [pHR 3.09 

 (1.78-5.34)]. CONCLUSION: This study reaffirms that non-invasive 

 scoring systems, especially NFS, are reliable prognostic markers 

 of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality in NAFLD 

 patients. These findings can inform clinical practice in risk 

 stratifying NAFLD patients.},

keywords = {biomarkers, mortality, Non-invasive, Nonalcoholic fatty liver   disease, Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, Prognosis},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}